Mitt Romney won both in Iowa and in New Hampshire to complete a historically unprecedented double for a non-incumbent Republican candidate. It is looking increasingly likely that he will sooner than later become the GOP’s nominee. However, as has become pretty obvious from both the turnout and results of the contests he does not appear to inspire either existing Republican voters or attract many new supporters to his cause; he appears to be winning just because he is the best of a pretty bad bunch. This lack of enthusiasm for Romney combined with an American economy that appears to be improving would therefore suggest that the chances of Barack Obama retaining the White House are looking better and better.
Nearly a year ago on another website I put forward the case that the Republicans would not retake the White House until at least 2016 due to a variety of factors ranging from history through demographics to the more pertinent fact that the GOP in this election cycle lacks a top quality candidate. If, as I suspect, Obama wins in November it will certainly mean some soul-searching on the Republican side, but if they do not degenerate into navel-gazers obsessed about ideological purity there is a very real chance that, in 2016, the race to be the GOP’s nominee could be a stellar contest in sharp contrast to this year’s. Even though it is four years hence, and as the saying goes a week is a long time in politics, the probability will be that in 2016 the Republican field will certainly contain many of the following:
1) Chris Christie, the current Governor of New Jersey who in recent years has developed a high public profile as a conservative with forthright views in a Democratic state. His brand of fiscal conservatism with enough moderation on social issues as to appeal beyond the Republican Party combined with his executive experience has already made him a firm favourite among the Republican establishment who see him as electable and were actually desperate for him to run this year. However, even though he ticks many of the boxes for the ideal candidate, to actually win not just the nomination but the Presidency there are problems which could derail him: His outspoken nature is a strength, and a weakness which could be exploited by rivals. Also, he has campaigned so vigorously for Romney and could in theory be his vice-presidential nominee – this could be to his detriment, if as I suspect, Romney is defeated this November.
2) Marco Rubio, the junior Senator from Florida who after a career in state politics burst onto the scene in the mid-term elections by winning both his party’s nomination as the conservative alternative to then-governor Charlie Crist, and then crushing his rivals in the subsequent election. He certainly is a well known figure for someone so recently appearing on the national stage and is the darling of the Tea Party movement; he has a ready built base of support within the GOP. His background as the son of immigrants, and his Hispanic ethnicity combined with his coming from a key battleground state, certainly make him on paper a formidable potential candidate. Nevertheless, his strongly conservative views which have gained him much support within his own party could harm his chances of being electable to the independents and moderates who decide Presidential elections. Also the fact that he already has such a high public profile, and even before he was elected was regarded by many as a future Republican candidate for President, means that he is already being metaphorically shot at. He also lack executive experience.
3) Bobby Jindal, the Governor of Louisiana is still relatively young but has years of executive experience and a solid record of success in numerous areas during his tenure. He, like the aforementioned Marco Rubio, also comes from a minority background which helps to dismiss the notion that the Republican Party is the preserve of middle-aged white men. He also comes from a state that, while usually Republican, can on occasion, such as in 1992 and 1996, turn Democratic. However, the big flaw for Governor Jindal is that he has already flopped badly on the big stage after replying to Barack Obama’s State of the Union address
4) Mitch Daniels, the Governor of Indiana was like Chris Christie, begged by some in the GOP to stand for President this year but declined citing personal reasons. Why he was asked was that he has executive experience, an impressive record in certain areas combined with an ability to appeal to moderates and is the two term governor of a state that voted for Barack Obama in 2008. All those reasons would suggest that Mitch Daniels, in theory, would make a Presidential candidate but he is also regarded as a policy wonk and lacks the appeal of some of his potential rivals. Also the personal reasons that kept him out this year will still apply in 2016 and the question has to be asked would he actually run?
5) Paul Ryan, a Congressman from Wisconsin regarded by many as a rising star of the next generation of the conservative movement in America. He has articulated clearly thought out policies and a potential direction for the Republican Party in the years ahead as well as being a presentable candidate, and that is why in late 2011 he too was considered as a late arrival to the Republican primaries. Nevertheless, he lacks executive experience, and due to his proposals on issues such as health reform he already has had his name irrevocably blackened in some sections of the electorate. More importantly though, he would be flying in the face of history because – if he is still a Representative in 2016 – he must know that no-one since the nineteenth century has transitioned straight from that position to the Presidency. Therefore if he wants to be a candidate for the Republicans in 2016 he will either have to break with orthodoxy or find and establish himself in another position e.g. Senator within the next few years.
6) John Huntsman, the former Governor of Utah who is currently running to be the Republican nominee this time around. He too has executive experience and a solid record of fiscal conservatism with the added bonus of appealing to moderates and by 2016 would have a higher name recognition. However, his current campaign has not set the world alight, he did work for the Obama administration which according to many in the Republican Party is unforgivable, is a Mormon and holds views on global warming etc which are incompatible with a large section of the GOP. More pointedly though if he is running in 2016 that means Romney has lost this year and therefore it would be very difficult in my opinion to persuade the Republican voters to accept as their candidate a Mormon running on a moderate platform.
7) Jeb Bush, the former Governor of Florida like many of the previously mentioned has a large amount of executive experience and a solid record of accomplishment. He is also, to an extent, unmatched by any other potential candidate for 2016 has name recognition and establishment credentials, and has a record which is both conservative but appealing to Hispanics and moderates. Therefore in 2016 if he chose to run, Jeb Bush would be a formidable candidate but would he want to run? Since leaving the Governor’s mansion in Florida, he has stayed out of politics to a greater or lesser extent and would he really want to get back involved especially when you also consider that he knows from family experience that being President can lead to people having a visceral hatred of you. Added to this is that the name of Bush, although an advantage in many ways, could also be a double-edged sword which could certainly make it much more difficult for him to win.
8) Rand Paul, the junior Senator from Kentucky is without a doubt the potential anti-establishment candidate for the GOP in 2016. He certainly has a clear set of beliefs gained from his father and is likely to inherit the highly motivated and determined band of supporters that Ron Paul has built up over the years. However, unless the Republican Party changes dramatically in the next 4 years, he will not be able to gain the nomination because his views and policies are at the extreme end of the Party and therefore make him unelectable.
9) Bob McDonnell, the Governor of Virginia, a crucial swing state that it is almost certain that a Republican would have to win in order to achieve the Presidency. He, like numerous of his potential rivals, has executive experience and has strong conservative credentials but can appeal to moderates and independents. However, his record is perhaps a little too conservative to make him a viable candidate in a Presidential election even if it was potentially beneficial in the Republican primaries. Also because he is Governor of Virginia with its close proximity to Washington, it means that his gaffes and mistakes come under a higher degree of scrutiny as he has a much higher profile than a lot of other potential candidates.
10) Haley Barbour is the former Governor of Mississippi and earned a high amount of praise for his actions during his tenure. Having been involved in the higher echelons of the Republican Party for decades he certainly has the connections and experience to run a solid campaign. However, his links to lobbyists, his age and his perception as a good old boy are certainly detrimental to any potential run in 2016. Although he could theoretically be a candidate in 2016, it is more likely that he could be a very influential kingmaker.
11) Mike Huckabee, the former Governor of Arkansas is probably the potential candidate with the highest public profile of any of the above. He is charismatic, with a solid record and the right credentials to appeal to the Republican Party but also with an easy charm which appeals across the political divide. Nevertheless, would he really want to give up the career he has forged since 2008 in order to embark on a political process which he has tried before and lost?
The 2016 Republican primary should be a marked improvement on this year’s pretty mediocre affair between a rather limited group. Although four years is a long time, 2016 looks a much better bet for the Republican Party in terms of choice and potential electability, and this is without considering some of the other potential candidates that have been mooted, for example David Petraeus.